Apartment Deliveries Are Falling Off a 40-Year Record

After the historic 2024 supply wave — roughly 700,000 new units delivered, a 40-year record — the pipeline is emptying fast. Yardi Matrix and RealPage put 2026 deliveries near 488,000 and 2027 near 454,000, about a 30% drop from peak.

Starts have already collapsed

New multifamily construction starts fell to their lowest quarterly level since 2011 — about 55,000 in Q1 2026, down roughly 73% from the Q1 2022 peak of 210,000. Nearly 1.3M units remain in lease-up (6.9% of inventory versus a 4.7% pre-pandemic norm), so today's absorption still lags. But the starts collapse points squarely at a supply cliff in 2027–2028.