Colorado State University and NOAA both forecast a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season — roughly 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes, which works out to 78–90% of the 1991–2020 normal.
The trap is reading 'below-normal' as 'low-risk'
A single landfall still triggers the roof-claim cascade, and severe-convective and inland wind/rain events — the 2024 Helene pattern — sit outside the named-storm count entirely. Against our database — an average wind & hail property claim of $14,700 and roof economics of $17,631 to replace versus $4,699 to repair — the pre-season window is when preventive roof inspection pays for itself, regardless of the forecast's headline number.